FINAL 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: BEST ACTOR (2024)

We’re on the precipice of some big Oscar history this season in Best Actor.

We may be 95 years into the Academy Awards but Best Actor is a category that has stuck by its familiars for nearly 90 of those years. Meaning, since 1934, just seven years into the Oscars themselves, every single year has seen at least one returning nominee or winner in this category. This year looks very different.

Normally, we’d have one or two, or more, lead actor contenders who’ve been here before and then a smattering of newcomers – either a veteran on their first nod or a young actor in a breakout – populating Best Actor having built their way through the regular precursors, some combination of BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild. This year, however, is looking a little slight on that front and much is hinging on a very open 5th spot.

This season, no less than four actors, Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Bill Nighy (Living) have secured all those precursors and all would be first-time nominees that cover both of those traditional first-time nominee qualities. If they all get in (and I think they will), who joins them? Right behind them is another newcomer, Paul Mescal in Aftersun, in the highest rated narrative film of 2022 on Metacritic yet Mescal failed to earn nominations from the Golden Globes or SAG. He comes with a CCA and BAFTA nomination in hand. And what to make of Adam Sandler’s SAG nomination for Hustle? Something that seems completely out of left field and makes perfect sense at the same time.

So what we’ve been doing all season, at least I have, is see if there’s a previous nominee or winner that check that familiarity box for voters. Early on it seemed like Hugh Jackman, until people saw The Son. He just has a Globe nod. The monster success of Top Gun: Maverick swayed lots of people into thinking he was going to be the one, but he failed to earn Globe, SAG or BAFTA nominations. It’s the SAG miss that is the biggest red flag for me as that should have been his easiest get but voters went with Sandler. Cruise has just a CCA nomination. It took two-time Best Actor winner Tom Hanks 17 years to get another nomination after his nod for 2000’s Cast Away, for supporting in 2017’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, playing television icon Fred Rogers. This year, he has two distinct roles, as Colonel Tom Parker in Elvis and as the titular character in A Man Called Otto, the English-language remake of the Swedish Oscar nominee A Man Called Ove. Held for a very late release, long after most nominations and top tier critics’ had announced, the film, from Sony Pictures, turned a pretty healthy opening weekend at the box office $15M) right as voting was kicking off. Could he be the link that keeps the 88-year chain in one piece? He might be closer than we think.

With that, last year I decided to stick with history over precedent in the Best Picture race and that didn’t turn out to well for me. Streaks are broken, new history is made is every year. Maybe it’s time.

The largest single branch of the academy, the Actors Branch membership dropped a bit from 1,336 last year to 1,302 this year, which means if all eligible members vote, it will take 218 votes to secure a nomination in Best Actor.

Oscar nominations for the 95th Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 24. Here are my final Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actor.