Oscar Predictions 2023: Who Will Win in Every Category (2024)

Despite what you may have heard about Everything Everywhere All at Once running away with every single award lately, making Oscars 2023 predictions isn’t as easy as it seems. Yes, the A24 adventure is poised to win a solid number of statues, and at least one of its actors is practically guaranteed a win as well. But there’s strong competition among its fellow Oscar nominees, from the film that dominated at the BAFTA awards, All Quiet on the Western Front, to the box office phenomenons Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, and Avatar: The Way of Water.

Size does seem to matter at this year’s Oscars—it’s a relief to have so many hits after the pandemic pause, and in categories like best visual effects and best sound, the biggest spectacle often wins. But there are smaller-scale triumphs to watch for as well, from the broken-friendship allegory The Banshees of Inisherin to the diamond-sharp character study Tár, both of which will be challenging Everything Everywhere in the original-screenplay category. For nail-biting tension, you can turn to either of the lead-acting categories but also to crafts like sound, where battle epics Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front will challenge the musical mosaic of Elvis. And in original song, two giant superstars will face off against a high-energy dance number from India, and there’s truly no telling who will win.

Below, find our best efforts at predicting the winners in all 23 Oscar categories. We will, of course, be everywhere all at once on Oscar night, reporting from inside the Dolby Theatre and from the Vanity Fair Oscar party, where you can tune in to our live stream after the Oscars for all the insider details you can’t get anywhere else.

BEST PICTURE

PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once
All Quiet on the Western Front
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Tár
Avatar: The Way of Water
Women Talking
Triangle of Sadness

The playing field started out with lots of promise. Tár, Women Talking, and Banshees received a lot of early critic love; Elvis earned the adoration of viewers and voters; Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water were box office hits. For a while it felt like The Fabelmans was the sort of catnip that wins this category, with a story so deeply steeped in cinema and from a beloved director. It won the Globe for best drama too. But as the season went on, some interesting things started to happen. First off, seemingly out of nowhere, Netflix’s German-language war drama, All Quiet on the Western Front, began to surge. It cleaned up at the BAFTAs and earned nine Oscar nominations. Suddenly, it felt like a real possibility for best picture. But there’s no denying this year’s other phenomenon: Everything Everywhere All at Once. The A24 film comes into this race with 11 nominations (the most of any film), and it won awards at Critics Choice and the Globes. But most notably, it won the top prize at all four major guilds—SAG, PGA, DGA, and WGA—a feat that has only happened four other times (American Beauty, No Country for Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire, and Argo). All four films won best picture. And at the Independent Spirit Awards just last weekend, it won in every category it was nominated in. Many people didn’t see the movie coming—as a genre-bending martial arts movie starring a nearly all-Asian cast, it’s not exactly what the Academy is known for welcoming in—but it’s crystal clear that it’s been embraced by Hollywood and will take home the top prize Sunday, along with awards in several other categories. —Rebecca Ford

BEST DIRECTOR

PREDICTED WINNER: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert,Everything Everywhere All at Once
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Todd Field,Tár
Martin McDonagh,The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg,The Fabelmans

For a moment during this awards season, this Oscar felt like Steven Spielberg’s to lose. But even as his memoiristic The Fabelmans earned strong reviews and won the coveted People’s Choice Award at TIFF, the film’s underperformance with moviegoers and industry voters alike coincided with the surging adoration for Everything Everywhere All at Once. You’re going to hear a lot about that Everything Everywhere wave on this predictions list, and just how many challengers it’s poised to beat out. And in this particular category, we’ve got maybe the clearest instance of a onetime front-runner being dislodged by representatives of that A24 phenomenon—in this case, the directing duo who already defeated Spielberg with the Directors Guild, Critics Choice Awards, and more. —David Canfield

BEST ACTOR

PREDICTED WINNER: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

This category has been one of the most unstable of the season, with three actors feeling like the front-runner at different times over the past few months. It’s exciting to see newcomer Paul Mescal and veteran Bill Nighy both nominated, but neither of those performances has had enough momentum to land the win. Colin Farrell started off the season by winning the best-actor award at the Venice Film Festival (beating Brendan Fraser). Farrell’s career has had ups and downs, but it seemed like voters might be ready to celebrate the ups of his recent work, including his funny-sad portrayal of a sweet and simple man in Banshees. But following his win at the Globes, his momentum has waned, with the actor missing out on the BAFTA to Butler and the SAG Award to Fraser. Transformative performances often succeed here, like Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour or Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, and so it seemed that Fraser’s performance as a grieving 600-pound man would become an easy front-runner, especially because of his powerful comeback story. But the fact that the movie has been met with a lukewarm reception could hurt his chances. That leaves this season’s “ingenue,” Austin Butler, who so convincingly captured Elvis that he’s seemed unable to completely shake him. His win at the BAFTAs was a big surprise, and the film is well liked by voters, so they could reward it here. Although it’s easy to see the parallels to Rami Malek’s win for Bohemian Rhapsody, the Academy is not known for rewarding newcomers in this category. So despite the tepid response to the film, I think the Academy will reward Fraser for both his performance and the tough journey he took to get there.—R.F.

BEST ACTRESS

PREDICTED WINNER: Michelle Yeoh,Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett,Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams,The Fabelmans

Best actress has felt like a very close two-horse race for a very long time. The Andrea Riseborough wild card aside—and with the whole of the Academy weighing in, rather than just the clubby actors branch, I’d say don’t lose sleep over it—Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh have been trading buzz since critics-awards season began some three months ago. The numbers currently tip toward Blanchett: She won awards from Critics Choice and BAFTA, unique groups of large and broad voting bodies, as well as from the trifecta of major national critics’ groups. But momentum is crucial in the Oscar race; both Yeoh and—more importantly—her film have it on their side. Scoring back-to-back wins with SAG and the Indie Spirits, which both carry Academy overlap, Yeoh has understandably been swept up in dominant showings for Everything Everywhere. She is the face of the movie, so if it’s going to have as good a night as we’re expecting, she’s got a real shot to make (overdue) history as the second woman of color to ever win this category. —D.C.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

PREDICTED WINNER: Ke Huy Quan,Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson,The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch,The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan,The Banshees of Inisherin

The easiest award of the night to predict, and likely one of the first handed out based on past Oscar traditions. Ke Huy Quan’s emotional, high-energy speeches have been a consistent highlight of the season, and we can all look forward to seeing him clutch his Oscar and recount the unlikely comeback story that Everything Everywhere kicked off. As for his competition, Barry Keoghan did take home the BAFTA award, and Judd Hirsch for a while appeared like a strong contender in the category. But even with all the uncertainty in the other three acting categories, this is Quan’s. —Katey Rich

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

PREDICTED WINNER: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau, The Whale

The season began with a clear front-runner emerging in Angela Bassett. And though Wakanda Forever, unlike its predecessor, didn’t land a best-picture nomination, it still felt like Bassett had the support she’d need to win this, both for her performance in the sequel and to honor her decades of work as an actor. She won the Globe and has been fêted all season. But momentum has waned recently, with Jamie Lee Curtis taking the SAG Award and Kerry Condon the BAFTA. At this point all three seem to be viable candidates to win. Condon would be an easy way for voters to honor Banshees, which looks unlikely to win elsewhere. But looking back at the SAG Awards, their winner in this category has aligned with the eventual Oscar winner every year since 2010, excluding 2019 (when Emily Blunt won the SAG and Regina King took the Oscar). It’s almost unfathomable to predict another category going to EEAAO (and there’s a chance Curtis could suffer from vote-splitting with her costar Stephanie Hsu), but there’s a lot of love for Curtis in the industry and as the unofficial cheerleader of this film. —R.F.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

PREDICTED WINNER: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, Tár
Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Martin McDonagh,The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert won with the Writers Guild last weekend, affirming that the Oscar nominees that competed opposite them there, Tár and The Fabelmans, won’t be able to overtake the front-runner on Sunday. That leaves Triangle of Sadness and The Banshees of Inisherin, not eligible for WGA nominations, as potential spoilers. The former satire is too small and divisive a movie to win an above-the-line prize, but Banshees’ Martin McDonagh has seemed competitive here for quite some time, given his penchant for colorful dialogue and his BAFTA win. The problem, as it is for every other nominee this season, is the sheer force of Everything Everywhere All at Once. From The King’s Speech to Spotlight to Green Book to Parasite, this field tends to get won out by the eventual best-picture winner. Everything Everywhere is poised to win more Oscars than any of those movies, so logic has it that screenplay is the Daniels’ to lose. But if Everything Everywhere were to look at all weaker on Oscar night than it appears now, this is one place to look for an upset. —D.C.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

PREDICTED WINNER: Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Edward Berger, Ian Stokell & Lesley Paterson, All Quiet on the Western Front
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig & Justin Marks, Top Gun: Maverick

We can probably start, fairly or not, by eliminating the two sequels. While Rian Johnson’s Knives Out follow-up was tipped as a potential best-picture contender, it wound up with the same screenplay nomination as its predecessor (just in the adapted category this time, because sequel). And the nomination for Top Gun: Maverick here was a surprise, an indication of its strong overall support at the Academy—but we expect a nomination is as far as that can go. That leaves us with some heavy hitters. Kazuo Ishiguro is the only Nobel laureate in the group, and his nomination for the quietly devastating screenplay for Living indicates how much respect he has within the Academy as well. But he’s got stronger competition, we think. All Quiet on the Western Front earned a huge nomination tally, and the splashy adaptation of Erich Maria Remarque’s famous novel could be its most high-profile victory. Plenty of prognosticators have leaned toward that one, but we have a sentimental favorite, and also a recent winner: Sarah Polley, whom we’re predicting to repeat her WGA win for her Women Talking adaptation. —K.R.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

PREDICTED WINNER: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
EO (Poland)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Each of these five features has found success this season. The legal drama Argentina, 1985 won awards at the Venice Film Festival, along with the Golden Globe. Coming-of-age drama Close won the Grand Prix at Cannes, along with a slew of festival prizes. Charming donkey story EO also won a jury prize at Cannes, along with the New York Film Critics Circle prize. And Irish drama The Quiet Girl won at the Berlin Film Festival and the London Critics’ Circle, in addition to earning two BAFTA noms. But it all pales in comparison to the run that war drama All Quiet on the Western Front has had this season. Though the German-language drama had a quiet debut at the Toronto Film Festival, it gained steam throughout the season when it landed a leading 14 BAFTA nominations (it won seven, including best film) and then earned nine Oscar nominations. Of all the categories it’s nominated in, this one is the surest bet for an easy win. —R.F.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

Unusually for this category, the Pixar film is not the runaway favorite, though Turning Red has its ardent admirers and a strong narrative as one of very few Hollywood animated movies about a teenage girl’s experience. But the season has belonged to Guillermo del Toro and Pinocchio, a labor of love that survived decades in the Hollywood wilderness before Netflix helped bring it to life. It’s been an unusually quiet season for the streamer, but it’s put a lot of weight behind del Toro and Pinocchio, to strong results; the film won a slew of critics’ and guild awards as well as the BAFTA. There’s no reason to believe it won’t repeat here—and make del Toro a three-time Oscar winner. —K.R.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

PREDICTED WINNER: Navalny
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters

Industry groups have settled on the timely Navalny and the innovative Fire of Love as their preferred documentaries this season; the former took both PGA and BAFTA, while the latter pulled off a surprise with the DGA. It makes sense that the latter film, an artfully and (literally) explosively crafted love story, would appeal to directors, but they make up a relatively small chunk of the Academy. Navalny, meanwhile, speaks sharply to the current moment around the war in Ukraine and ongoing tensions with Russia, and if it’s found enough of an audience, it very much clicks as a consensus choice. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed has found the most critical love and certainly has its admirers in Hollywood, so don’t count it out, but the fact of Laura Poitras already having an Oscar under her belt may have turned that campaign into a steep climb. —D.C.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

PREDICTED WINNER: Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front
Justin Hurwitz, Babylon
John Williams, The Fabelmans
Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once

This category is a mix of newcomers, seasoned veterans, and returning winners. The band Son Lux had only done one other movie score before EEAAO, for the 2014 film The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby. Justin Hurwitz is a returning champ in this category, after winning for La La Land in 2016. John Williams is an icon who has already won five times, while Carter Burwell is a veteran composer who has been nominated twice before (for Carol and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). And Volker Bertelmann is also a returning nominee, previously nominated for the score for Lion. The race this year is currently between All Quiet on the Western Front (which won for score at the BAFTAs) and Babylon (which won at the Golden Globes). But the overperformance of All Quiet in nominations indicates the general appreciation for the film that gives it the extra boost here. —R.F.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

PREDICTED WINNER: M.M. Keeravaani & Chandrabose,“Naatu Naatu,” RRR
Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems,“Lift Me Up,”Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Lady Gaga & BloodPop,“Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick
Diane Warren,“Applause,”Tell It Like a Woman
Ryan Lott, David Byrne & Mitski, “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once

In a battle of pop-music titans, could it really be an Indian song that translates from Telugu to “Dance Dance” that wins in this category? Anyone who has seen the box office sensation RRR knows the power of “Naatu Naatu,” an energetic dance-off full of astonishingly athletic choreography and multiple catchy hooks. It’s at the center of the movie in a way none of the other nominees are, a power that has fueled many underdog winners in the past—think Once’s “Falling Slowly” or Hustle & Flow’s “Hard Out Here for a Pimp.” But “Naatu Naatu” isn’t up against any ordinary star power; fresh off her Super Bowl performance and second pregnancy announcement, Rihanna is practically a supernova, and could power the Wakanda Forever song to victory. Lady Gaga, meanwhile, is a recent winner in this category and her song carries much of the emotional weight of cultural phenomenon Top Gun: Maverick. And then there’s the Everything Everywhere All at Once sweep factor. That movie has been winning virtually everything it’s been nominated for lately; could David Byrne, Mitski, and Ryan Lott be next? We’re not predicting it, but it might not be wise to underestimate anyone associated with that movie. —K.R.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

PREDICTED WINNER: Mandy Walker,Elvis
James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
Roger Deakins,Empire of Light
Darius Khondji, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Florian Hoffmeister, Tár

Is this the year one of Oscars’ most dreadful streaks finally gets broken? It’s close, but indications are that Walker might just become the first female cinematographer to ever win this category. Her incredibly detailed, thoroughly researched, playfully energetic methods have been the toast of her peers—see her recent win with the cinematography guild—but the Academy is a larger and broader group, and Elvis’s camerawork doesn’t pop as immediately as its other elements (more on those later). The vividly shot All Quiet on the Western Front won this race at BAFTA and was widely admired below the line by the Academy. It’s got real strength here. This one comes down to which movie proves stronger overall on the big night. And today, we’re predicting more wins for Elvis. —D.C.

BEST EDITING

PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa, Elvis
Monika Willi, Tár

At the recent ACE Eddie Awards, both Top Gun: Maverick and Everything Everywhere All at Once won the top awards since the categories were split into drama and comedy. But EEAAO’s editor Paul Rogers also won at Critics Choice, the BAFTAs and the Independent Spirit Awards, so it’s clear the film is playing well with all kind of voters. We’re assuming the overwhelming support for the best-picture front-runner will give Rogers a boost over Maverick editor Eddie Hamilton. —R.F.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WINNER: Catherine Martin,Elvis
Jenny Beavan,Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Ruth Carter,Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Mary Zophres,Babylon
Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All at Once

This is the third time that Catherine Martin has been nominated in both costume design and production design, roles she has filled on every film by her husband, Baz Luhrmann, has made since Romeo + Juliet. And every time Martin has gotten those double nominations, she’s won both. Will history repeat itself? Elvis has some lavish competition in the costumes category, including from recent winner Ruth Carter and three-time winner Jenny Beavan. But the strongest competition may come from Shirley Kurata, who like so many of the people behind Everything Everywhere All at Once is currently earning the most acclaim of her career. The sheer scale of her work is impressive, not to mention the inventiveness of costumes like “Jumble Jobu.” Martin has scale on her side too, though, and a strong Oscar track record. We expect her to take home her fifth Oscar here. —K.R.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

PREDICTED WINNER: Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy & Bev Dunn,Elvis
Christian M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper, All Quiet on the Western Front
Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino,Babylon
Dylan Cole, Ben Procter & Vanessa Cole,Avatar: The Way of Water
Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans

While Babylon’s design is both flashy and ingenious, the Academy tends to overlook movies in this category that don’t fare well otherwise—in fact, it’s been a full decade since a film won best production design without a corresponding best-picture nomination. Babylon is not exactly an Oscar juggernaut, which indicates a narrow path. Meanwhile, the last movie that did win here without best-picture recognition was Baz Luhrmann’s The Great Gatsby—and wouldn’t you know it, he’s got another dizzyingly designed film up for consideration this year. Except Elvis actually is a best-picture nominee, its re-creation of iconic concerts so intricately staged that, for many, it’s probably an easy vote. —D.C.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

PREDICTED WINNER: Elvis
The Whale
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Over the years, there’s been a strong tie between lead actor and makeup winners; Gary Oldman and his makeup artist won for Darkest Hour, as did Matthew McConaughey, Jared Leto, and the makeup team for Dallas Buyers Club. This year is no different, with the two-film race paralleling that of the lead-actor category. The Whale, with its incredible hair and makeup work that transformed Brendan Fraser into a 600-pound man, seems like the obvious front-runner here, but the film’s biggest hurdle is that it wasn’t well-liked overall. Elvis, which sees Austin Butler become the King of Rock and Roll, has the advantage because the film has been widely loved by audiences and voters alike. The Baz Luhrmann biopic also won big at the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild awards, nabbing awards for both period makeup and hairstyling. Still, this race could go either way, but we’re going with the more well-liked of the two. —R.F.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

PREDICTED WINNER: Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

There is excellent work to choose from in this category, from the subtle stitching of reality with computer effects in Top Gun: Maverick to the digital underwater worlds of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. But there is one overwhelming favorite in the category in Avatar: The Way of Water, which raised the bar from the Oscar-winning first film and once again created an entirely digital, dazzling world. The four artists nominated for visual effects have five Oscars between them, and can look forward to adding more to their shelves. —K.R.

BEST SOUND

PREDICTED WINNER: Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis

The original Top Gun was nominated in this category in 1987 but lost it, expectedly, to a war drama in Platoon. We’ve got a similar dynamic to examine 36 years later, as the beloved sequel stands a good shot at winning here—in fact, maybe its best shot at taking home an award on Sunday—with a widely-nominated war movie its primary obstacle. Already, Maverick lost the BAFTA to All Quiet on the Western Front, but much of the latter film’s wins with the British bloc can be chalked up to just how much they loved that movie. The Academy, meanwhile, liked Top Gun far more than BAFTA did, and tends to honor muscular action movies here too, like Mad Max: Fury Road or last year’s Dune. They really love war movies here, though, so we’ve got a nail-biter. —D.C.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

PREDICTED WINNER: Le Pupille
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase

Directed by Italian filmmaker Alice Rohrwacher, Le Pupille is a sweet Christmas film about a group of precocious young girls at an orphanage who really want some cake. It harkens back to the style of classic Christmas movies of yore, and had a fruitful festival run with stops at Cannes and Telluride. With a major name backing it (it’s produced by Alfonso Cuarón), Le Pupille has this win tied up in a (Christmas) bow. —R.F.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

PREDICTED WINNER: My Year of Dicks
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

It’s a good year for indies in this category, with the closest thing to a studio juggernaut being Apple TV+’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, executive produced by J.J. Abrams and featuring a slew of celebrity voices. But try to put yourself in the mind of an Oscar voter, who may have had to rush through watching the nominated shorts and might struggle to remember which is which. Wouldn’t the most attention-grabbing title become a favorite? Sure, there are two unbeatable titles in the mix this year, and An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It is a very clever stop-motion animated riff on office life. But like Riz Ahmed, we’re won over by My Year of Dicks, and we expect voters who watch the surprisingly sweet coming-of-age story will be too. —K.R.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

PREDICTED WINNER: Stranger at the Gate
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect

I can’t spoil why, but if enough voters watched Haulout with their full attention, I’m confident that movie, with its mind-blowing reveal and careful buildup, would take this award. That’s not to say this category isn’t strong otherwise—the lovely and moving The Elephant Whisperers and Stranger at the Gate take more familiar shapes, and anecdotally, have enjoyed greater industry visibility. (The former is on Netflix; the latter is produced by Malala Yousafzai.) A strong ambassador for a movie claiming significant social import can be particularly powerful, and feels like the safest bet. —D.C.

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